Top 5 NBA Players I Targeted For Card Collecting
With images of the thrilling August blowoff-top still fresh in the rear-view mirror and a recently finalized new NBA season now fast approaching, I wanted to share with you the 5 players whose trading-cards I’ve been targeting most heavily this off-season. Although we have no guarantees we’ll see prices like we did leading up to last season’s playoffs (and as such must be prudent with our bankroll management), recent price-trends and volume profiles appear to point to a healthy market that has survived its first major correction and is set to begin its next leg up. And while that’s still nothing more than a hypothesis at this point, collectors/investors/flippers with self-discipline and an above-average risk-tolerance stand to bear the fruits of what was an explosively bullish market only a few short months ago.
5. Michael Porter Jr.
The only reason MPJ is this far back on the list is because the early-investor window seems to have somewhat closed now that his value has reached levels that have far exceeded his on-court production. For reference sake, on July 19th of this year you could have purchased a “lot” of 10 MPJ Prizm Base rookie-cards for $25. A month later that same set peaked somewhere in the neighborhood of $750 before retracing to the approximately $450–500 value it holds today. And while Porter Jr’s career is only getting started and prices seem likely to appreciate over the next few seasons, his card-market has become incredibly competitive, with value-buys (which I define as sale-price below market average) becoming increasingly difficult to find.
Still, having been bullish on him as a player since last off-season, I continue to see value in accumulating an MPJ position via a ‘buy the dip’ strategy — waiting to strike during lulls in the market (be it due to stretches of poor-play, a reduced spotlight in the national conversation, or a wider market dip) in anticipation that over the next 12–36 months, as both his skill-set and the card-collecting industry mature, his trajectory will continue to trend upwards, allowing you to ‘take profits’ along the way by selling small portions of your inventory so as to protect yourself from injury-risk or general market downturn.
4. Tyler Herro
Everything written above about Michael Porter Jr. can be restated nearly word-for-word about Tyler Herro as well. Herro’s cards have exploded in value, with one of his earliest Panini autographs starting out a price of $42 in February of 2020 and today selling for as high as $500, even after the off-season industry-wide decline.
The reasons Tyler ranks ahead of MPJ (at least in my mind) include: a reduced injury risk (Porter Jr has a well-document back injury that caused him to miss significant time both in college and during his time with the Nuggets), playing a flashier position in a wealthier market, and the fact that — at $35/each — his rookie base Prizms — the industry’s most easily flipped cards — are a little easier to build a position on than MPJ’s which are currently selling for $45–50. Interestingly enough, MPJ’s base prizms continue to trend downwards, dropping about 30% over the past 90 days while Herro’s have consistently trended upwards to the tune of +25% over the same time period, a trend that I expect to even out eventually, though it’s possible that a long-term flip of their ranking has occurred in the eyes of sports-cards investors.
3. Kostas Antetokounmpo
Although I had never seen him play other than some YouTube highlight video, I started accumulating Kosta’s cards ahead of last year’s playoffs due purely to the price levels of his higher-value cards, which to me seemed to indicate a much more robust demand than comparable players. In fact, I was able to pick up a number of his PSA 10 Silver Prizms for an average of $80 (already a relatively high-price considering his lack of playing time); today those same cards already range between $150–250 even after the recent market downturn (a free ring care of Lebron no doubt helping the cause).
In an age where social-profile is nearly as important as talent, getting to play on a championship team while having the benefit of holding one of the most highly sought-after family names in the sports-card industry, I see incredible upside for KA’s cards if his career progresses as expected. And if Giannis should in fact make the decision to leave the Bucks and perhaps choose to go to LA to join little brother (Lakers fans can dream), Kostas’ rapidly growing value could really sky-rocket.
The best part? While Giannis’ base Prizms have been selling for more than a $1,000 recently, the younger Antetokounmpo’s can be had for less than $5 each, with base autos selling in the $15–30 range.
And while the odds of Kostas reaching his brother’s superstardom levels are slim to none, the numbers appear to indicate him being one of the best low-risk (financially speaking)/high-reward plays in the business.
2. Darius Bazley
With the Oklahoma City Thunder surprising everyone this past season even while accumulating a literal treasure-trove of draft picks care of the Paul George/Russell Westbrook trades, one potential star-in-the-making that perhaps shined brightest was Darius Bazley, a well-rounded wing who under the guidance of Super-agent Rich Paul once elected to skip college in lieu of an internship at New Balance. After finding strong success while logging heavy minutes in the NBA Bubble seeding games, Bazley made a strong showing in the Thunder’s first-round seven-game series with the Houston Rockets, shooting 50% from behind the arc, 90% from the free-throw line, and averaging 6.7 rebounds per game in just 18 minutes.
Currently the population of Bazley’s Silver Prizm — the Cadillac of rookie cards — sits at just 100 10s, with the few that have hit the market selling for an average of $300-$350 in recent weeks after peaking at more than $500 during the August top. And while one can never know for sure, that number is one I’d anticipate revisiting if the market rebounds as the 2020–2021 season progresses, particularly with the current draft-class expected to underwhelm compared to the past couple thereby giving cards like the ones in this list more time in the sun before attention gets refocused elsewhere.
And with the Thunder having built a strong nucleus of solid young players, something that will likely continue trending upwards over the next 1–2 seasons due to the draft picks and player assets (aka Chris Paul and Steven Adams), I’m betting on Bazley’s stock — and rookie card value — continuing to rise.
1. Coby White
Over the past couple of months — as the entire NBA card market corrected — Coby White’s base Prizms were some of the only cards that not only avoided losing 30–40% of their value but actually managed to see prices trend upwards, moving from an average of $21 to $30+ each over the past 8 weeks — a not insignificant gain considering the recent state of the NBA market at large.
Truthfully though, while it’s nice to have some confirmation from the analytics, the real reason for my bullishness on the other Coby is nothing more than what most people call the “eye test”, or “gut feel”. The way I choose to think of it, however, is that my subconscious mind — which has been immersed in basketball culture for the better part of a quarter century — has picked up on something that I can’t quite quantify. It is that same “gut” that caused me to stock up on MPJ rookies before he even stepped on an NBA court, as well as on Tyler Herro after watching him play just 2 preseason games, two investments that paid off handsomely when each broke into the national conversation during the latter part of the season and throughout the playoffs.
Now, with one of the best coaches at developing young talent — Billy Donovan — leading Coby and the Bulls, I expect a complete (and desperately needed) culture change in Chicago, which my intuition tells me will revolve heavily around one of the most exciting young PGs in the league who has two backups in Satoransky and Arcidiacono that are unlikely to offer any serious competition in terms of minutes played.
With that said, there is of course a distinct possibility I could be wrong, be it about Coby White or any of the other names on this list. They could get injured, teams like Chicago and OKC could take a lot longer to claw back to their prior glory, or a recession could devastate the trading-card market. So while it’s fun to postulate about which player offers the best opportunity to turn $1 into $10, it’s important to practice strict bankroll management while keeping in mind that, just like any other investment, there is a real possibility of watching it all go down to (near) zero — at least in the short-term — and making sure to keep your finances safe if that day should come.
Disclaimer: I own all the cards discussed in the preceding article, though none of the listings linked above are mine.
Disclaimer: I own all the cards discussed in the preceding article, though none of the listings linked above are mine.
